Just Another Leafs Blog

Looking to 2011-12

2011-02-19T01:19:00.002-05:00

So the Kaberle era/saga is over and the Leafs got a decent return (more than I expected). We also finally got rid of an over-rated Beauchemin and, once again, got a very decent return. On top of that, showboater Versteeg was shipped out and we got a decent draft pick. Overall, the future is looking bright in Leafland.

Now, although this season isn't over yet, our chances our slim. So, lets look forward to next season. If I was Burke, here's what my way-too-early offseason game plan would look like:

1. Hopefully Burke can get rid of him before this trade deadline, but if not, Komisarek has to go to the minors. If you’re going to bury Jeff Finger, there’s no excuse for not doing the same to Komisarek. I like Komi as a person, but his play doesn’t justify keeping him in the lineup….especially at $4.5m.

2. Before looking outside of the organization for additional help, lets get things in order by re-signing key RFAs. Based on what guys have signed for in recent years and recent performances, I’m projecting the following salaries:

Macarthur 3m
Bozak 1m
Brent 0.65m
Schenn 3m
Gunnarson 0.9
Reimer 1.00

3. Up front, the only way the Leafs are going to get a marquee centre without trading away the farm is to target Brad Richards, who is still relatively young and has at least 4 to 5 solid years left in him. In terms of other guys to target, I would look to Vancouver to improve our D by trying to sign Erhoff (offensively skilled dman) and Bieksa (defensive dman):

Richards 7m
Erhoff 4.5m
Bieksa 4.0m

4. With a solid top 6, Kadri doesn’t have to be thrust into a prominent role. I’d like to see him come up and further hone is skills on the third line with two decent players in Armstrong and Bozak. I envision a lineup looking something like this:

Lupul – Richards – Kessel
Macarthur – Grabovksi – Kulemin
Kadri – Bozak – Armstrong
Brown – Brent – Orr

Erhoff – Schenn
Aulie – Phaneuf
Gunnarson – Bieksa
Lebda

Reimer
Gustavsson

5. Cap numbers look something like this:

Lupul 4.25
Kessel 5.4
Richards 7
Macarthur 3
Grabovski 2.9
Kulemin 2.35
Kadri 1.72
Bozak 1.0
Armstrong 3.0
Brown 0.737
Brent 0.65
Orr 1.0

Phaneuf 6.5
Schenn 3.0
Erhoff 4.5
Bieksa 4.0
Aulie 0.734
Gunnarson 0.9
Lebda 1.45

Reimer 1.00
Gustavsson 1.35

Tucker 1

TOTAL 57.468

Evaluating Burke's Offseason Moves

2010-12-15T14:15:00.003-05:00

What was Brian Burke's most important offseason move? Some might say MacArthur - $1.1m for a guy who has 23 pts in 30 games is a steal. Others might look to Kris Versteeg who, after a slow start, is really starting to come around. Some might even say not trading Kaberle (especially given how well Schenn has played when paired with Kabs).

I was happy with all three of those moves, but no move was as significant as the acquisition of Colby Armstrong. Many thought the Leafs overpaid when they signed Colby Armstrong to a deal paying him $3m per season. He has already missed 16 of the first 30 games of the the season and he only has 2 pts so far. But the numbers don't lie:

Overall:
12-14-4

With Armstrong in the lineup:
9-3-1

Without Armstrong in the lineup:
3-11-3

Much like Darcy Tucker used to do, he's an energy guy who makes those around him better. He may only have 2 pts on the season, but he knows his role and he delivers everytime he's on the ice. It's only a matter of time before he puts up a few more points. Regardless of whether he scores, let's all just hope Colby can stay healthy and the Leafs can continue to win with him on the ice.

Early State of the Union Address

2010-10-22T09:42:00.003-04:00

So the 4-0-0 start is now a 4-1-1 start and the parade planners have now decided to hold off planning the final route. That being said, Leafs fans still have to be happy with and encouraged by the way this season has gone thus far. No one expected the Leafs to finish atop the Eastern Conference, but there was great pre-season debate as to whether this team would battle for a playoff spot. Based on what we've seen so far and as I predicted before the season started, this team is good enough to compete for one of the final three playoff spots in the East. Here's a look at some of the positives and some of the gaps that need to be filled:

1. Positives

(a) Defence

Some may say that the most impressive players thus far have been Kessel and Macarthur. With all due respect to their early season success, the most impressive player on our roster thus far has been Luke Schenn. He's playing solid defensively and, playing alongside Kaberle, he has shown some offensive flare and an ability to control and move the puck. With the sophomore jinx behind him, he has solidified his spot in the top 4 and is showing why he was a top 5 pick.

Much of Schenn's early season success can be attributed to playing with Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle seems to have put the offseason drama behind him and is playing as well as he ever has.

Kabs and Schenn have been our best two defencemen, but props have to go out to Phaneuf as well. He hasn't played exceptionally well, but for a guy with the world on his shoulders, he has been good enough and is a true leader out there. Once the Leafs figure out their powerplay, Dion will start putting up much stronger numbers.

One the downside, Komisarek hasn't looked great, but attribute much of his problems to his defensive partners. Gunnarson seems to have caught the sophomore jinx and Lebda has failed to impress. Although overpaid to be a 5-6 dman, I still think Komi is a decent player and a great character guy to have in the lineup. If Gunnar gets back into the lineup and can get back into form, I believe Komi's play will drastically improve.

Overall, the Leafs have given up an average of just over 2 goals per game over the first six games. Thus far, the defence gets at A-.

(b) Goalies

Toskala's gone and thinks were bound to get better. Neither Gus nor Jiggy have played great games, but both have made some great saves during critical moments. In particular, in the first game versus the Rangers, Jiggy made a save with 10 seconds left that saved the game (which the Leafs won in OT). Later that week, Gus made a couple of game-saving stops at the end of the Pittsburgh game.

Overall, both goalies have brought stability to the Leafs net and the team is confident that soft goals will generally not be let in. The goalies deserve just as much credit as the D for the low goals against. They get an A- as well.

(c) Forwards

There was a lot of concern as to whether this team was capable of scoring. Notwithstanding 5 goals from each of Kessel and Macarthur, with the rest of the team combining for 8 goals, there is sill some cause for concern here; but also a reason to be optimistic.

First off, the positive - Kessel is playing as well as he ever has and with 5 goals in 6 games, he's likely to hit the 40 to 50 goal mark. With Macarthur's 5 goals, he's shown what he's capable of but he also has a reputation of being a streaky scorer. He will not match Kessel's pace, but for a second line winger with 5 goals thus far, he should be able to crack 20 goals - and for a $1.1m signing, that's more than what we could have hoped for.

Versteeg was brought in to score goals and, although he only has one thus far, he has had his opportunities. It's only a matter of time before he starts popping them in and 25 to 30 goals from this guy is a reasonable expectation.

Bozak has been relatively quiet, but he has not played poorly. It's yet to be determined whether he's a legit first line centre, but it's early in the season. Lets see where he stands after 20 games before making any rash decisions.

Kulemin and Grabo both have 4 pts through 6 games and have played well. Both are skating hard and controlling the puck down low. Along with Macarthur, they've been a solid second line.

The bottom 6 have done their job. The early season hype surrounding Tim Brent has died down and I still think Christian Hanson would be far more valuable in this slot, with Sjostrom and Armstrong on his wings.

Brown has been a solid addition to the 4th line, Zigomanis has been great on faceoffs and Orr has done his job thus far.

Thererfore, the offence gets a B thus far. There's still much room for improvement, but they've skated hard (for the most part) and shown they are capable of putting pucks in the net.

Overall, I give the Leafs a B+ thus far. They've won four games and salvaged a point against the Isles, but they haven't been a dominant team. This is a team that must keep its legs moving for 82 games if it wants a playoff spot.

I still think that, before the season ends, Christian Hanson and Luca Caputi need to be added to this lineup. If those guys crack the lineup and play up to expectations, then not only will the Leafs be a playoff team, but they'll be able to contend when they get here. Fast, rough and tough wins playoff games and that's exactly what this team is.

Opening Night Lineup

2010-09-23T14:03:00.002-04:00

Two exhibition games have been played, but they offered a lot of insight into what the Leafs' roster will look like on opening night. Before getting into the roster, here's some thoughts:

1. The first line of Kulemin, Bozak and Kessel looked great last night. Kessel looks better than ever and was a step ahead of any other player on the ice.

2. Christian Hanson and Luca Captui have both looked solid. I think Hanson will end up with the third line centre job, with Armstrong and Caputi on his wings.

3. Schenn looks confident and is doing a lot more offensively than he has in the past. He's in for a big year.

4. Kadri has seemed very tentative, which I don't think is a bad thing. I think he is trying to concentrate on the fundamentals rather than just running towards the puck and trying to do things on his own. With a bit of time, the fundamentals will become second nature and he will start to open up his game. I'm happy that he was not just running all over the place like a chicken with its head cut off. I do think he'd benefit with some time with the Marlies and I expect he’ll be sent down for at least part of the season.

That being said, here's what I think the roster will look like on opening night (with salary cap figures in brackets):

FORWARDS
Nikolai Kulemin ($2.350m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.725m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Kris Versteeg ($3.083m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($2.900m) / Clarke MacArthur ($1.100m)
Colby Armstrong ($3.000m) / Christian Hanson ($0.650m) / Luca Caputi ($0.833m)
Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.750m) / John Mitchell ($0.725m) / Colton Orr ($1.000m)
Mike Brown ($0.537m)

DEFENSEMEN
Tomas Kaberle ($4.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m) / Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.800m) / Luke Schenn ($2.975m)
Brett Lebda ($1.450m)

GOALTENDERS
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($6.000m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.350m)

TOTALS
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000
CAP PAYROLL: $60,079,166
BONUSES: $5,385,000
BUYOUTS: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
CARRY-OVER BONUS PENALTY: $1,400,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,775,834

Is scoring goals really going to be a problem for the Leafs?

2010-09-15T13:54:00.001-04:00

A lot is being made about the Leafs' inability to score but I don't think the picture is as gloomy as many in the media portray. I decided to make some predictions for goal-scoring totals for our lineup this year and I don’t think they are all that unreasonable. Kessel and Phaneuf would have to have career years, but I expect nothing less from both individuals. I've also include previous best totals for each player in brackets.

Tyler Bozak - 23 (previous best 8 in 37 games)
Phil Kessel - 39 (previous best 36)
Kris Versteeg - 25 (previous best 22)
Clark Macarthur - 14 (previous best 17)
Nazem Kadri - 14 (previous best n/a)
Nikolai Kulemin - 23 (previous best 16)
Colby Armstrong - 17 (previous best 22)
Mikhail Grabovski - 10 (previous best 20)
Christian Hanson - 7 (previous best 2 in 31 games)
John Mitchell - 5 (previous best 12)
Luca Caputi - 5 (previous best in 23 games)
Fredrik Sjostrom - 5 (previous best 12)
Colton Orr - 1 (previous best 4)
Mike Brown - 3 (previous best 6)
Tomas Kaberle - 8 (previous best 11)
Dion Phaneuf - 20 (previous best 20)
Luke Schenn - 9 (previous best 5)
Francois Beauchemin - 5 (previous best 8)
Carl Gunnarsson - 7 (previous best 3 in 43 games)
Mike Komisarek - 3 (previous best 4)
Brett Lebda - 3 (previous best 6)

Total 245; which total would’ve been sixth best in the league last year and 35 better than our total last year. If the Leafs can even improve by half that amount and reduce the goals against by at least 30 (which, again, I don’t think is an unrealistic expectation), the team should be much improved and competing for a playoff spot.

Where will the Leafs finish in the standings this season?

2010-08-31T09:01:00.002-04:00

It's that time of year - hockey prognosticators from across North America are evaluating off-season moves and trying to predict who will finish where in the standings. The Hockey News has recently predicted that the Leafs will finish 12th in the East. The reasoning seems to be that the Leafs "only" added Versteeg and Armstrong in the offseason and, therefore, didn't do enough to warrant a jump of more than three spots.

I would note, however, that this line of reasoing is fundamentally flawed. I know the days of blockbuster trades are generally behind us and it's easy to evaluate team improvements based on the trade deadline and July 1st free agency, but the mid-season moves made by Burke must not be overlooked. From the date of Phaneuf and Giguere's arrival to the end of the season, the Leafs had the 7th best record in the East. This really needs to be the starting point for evaluating this team; not 15th in the East (which position is largely attributable to Toskala, Stajan, Blake, etc.).

So it's true - the Leafs may have "only" added Versteeg and Armstrong, along with some other depth players this offseason. But if you're comparing this years team to last years team, you can't overlook Phaneuf and Giguere.

Now I'm not saying the Leafs are going to make the playoffs. However, with Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Philly and Boston filling out the top 5 spots, I do believe the Leafs are in a position to fight for one of the last three spots.

That being said, the season hasn't even started, so we may see another blockbuster before the first puck drops.

Method to the Madness

2010-08-17T14:18:00.002-04:00

I'm getting sick and tired of people criticizing Burke's methods for rebuilding the Leafs. In particular, I can't stand all those people who say building through the draft is the only way to build a winner. When I look at the players Burke has acquired and what he has gotten rid of since coming to Toronto, I'm very happy with the overall picture and I think we're on our way to being a good team. I could care less whether he followed the same model that other teams have followed in the past. I'm more than happy with the core group of age 25 and under players we have. In particular, I would note the following:

1. Everyone harps on the Kessel deal and it's obvious Boston won that deal in hindsight, but I can still understand why Burke made the deal. Regardless of what Burke says, there's no way he thought that the pick he traded would ever end up being the 2nd overall pick. He took a risk and it didn't pay off completely, but we still have Phil Kessel so get over it! Aside from that deal, has he "traded away the future?". No, he hasn't.

2. What Burke did do is get rid of Blake, Toskala, Stajan, Mayers, Hagman and White (Hagman and White being the only quality we gave up), but in return, got Phaneuf and Giguere in return. Handsdown, the Leafs won these trades.

3. He traded Stallberg and two unproven prospects for a proven young player in Kris Versteeg - he gave up unproven youth for proven youth.

4. He has done a great job of signing college players and young euro FAs. Bozak, Hanson, Gustavsson, Holzer and Mueller will all be contributors to this team (and some already are).

5. There's a lot of money on defence right now (see post below), but this is still an unsettled matter with changes to come. Who knows where Finger or Beauchemin end up? But until the Leafs are experiencing cap problems (which they aren't), does it really matter for the current year? I'm willing to give Burke the benefit of the doubt on D. Overall, it's asolid D. Moreover, it's not like there is a marquee UFA on the market that we are prevented from signing because of the salary being spent on D at this time.

6. Burke also made the decision to NOT give Kaberle away this week, which I'm happy with. No one here knows what was actually on the table, so we can't blame Burke for not trading Kabs.

Overall, people are criticizing Burke's method because it's different from those followed by teams who have "built through the draft". But quite honestly, I can't recall any other team ever utilizing this method - it's a "win now" mentality, but it's still a youth movement. The core players on this team are all 25 and under and it's not like the days of old where we traded draft picks and prospects for aged veterans. Burke is trying something novel in Toronto and he should be afforded an opportunity to prove himself before being unfairly criticized.

What Next?

2010-08-17T14:02:00.003-04:00

Although I expected Kaberle to get traded before the August 15th deadline, after three years of seeing such deadlines pass without a trade, I can't say I'm surprised it didn't happen. I also can't say I'm overly disappointed by Burke's decision to keep him rather than trade him away for less than what he's worth to the Leafs. People seem to forget what a great player he actually is. I hope that with the deadline passing, people stop talking about trading him. I also hope we can sign him to an extension before the season starts.

That being said, the Leafs now have 8 NHL defencmen at a total salary cap hit of approxmiately $28m. It's way too much and you simply can't justify having two such defencmen sitting in a pressbox on a nightly basis. The Leafs need to go into next season with 7 defencemen on their roster.

1. Kaberle and Phaneuf - No chance either guy gets traded
2. Mike Komisarek and Jeff Finger - No chance anyone would take these guys right now.
3. Carl Gunnarson - Young, talented and cheap; makes no sense to trade him.
4. Brett Lebda - Acquired as a free agent and will not get dealt.
5. Luke Schenn - It would take one hell of an offer for the Leafs to consider trading him.
6. Francois Beauchemin - Could likely be moved for a reasonable return.

Everyone (including myself) has been assuming that Finger will just be shipped to the Marlies along with his salary and cap hit. While this is an option, I'm starting to think that the Leafs would be better off making another move.

If the Leafs could find a taker for Beauch, they would alleviate a $3.8m cap hit. The other benefit to this is that Finger can be given a shot to play in the NHL and prove his worth. If he plays well, maybe a team out there would consider taking him off our hands? The worst case scenario is that Finger stinks it up and gets sent to the Marlies anyways, with our top 6 still being Phaneuf, Kabs, Schenn, Komi, Gunnar and Lebda. Only difference is that a guy like Keith Aulie would be given a shot to rotate in as the #7 dman. Seems like low risk high reward for the Leafs. It's not like Beauch has been stellar on the back end since being acquired anyways!

20 bipolar predications

2010-08-13T09:29:00.003-04:00

Ten Bold Predictions for 2010-11:
1. Kessel scores 40 goals
2. Bozak cracks 70 points
3. Versteeg cracks 30 goals
4. Phaneuf cracks 50 points
5. Gustavsson emerges as a true #1
6. Gunnarson emerges as a top 4 dman and first unit PP QB.
7. Kadri cracks the lineup as a solid #2 centreman and cracks 50 points.
8. Armstrong scores 20 goals.
9. After being acquired in a blockbuster Kaberle deal, Bobby Ryan has a great first season in Toronto, with 80 points.
10. Leafs finish 6th in the East (behind Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Buffalo and Philly).

Ten Not-So-Bold and more realistic Predications for 2010-11:
1. Giguere and Gustavsson split most of the season with no one stealing the show.
2. Kadri and D'Amigo both have solid years in the AHL.
3. Grabo has a disappointing year and ends up with about 30 pts.
4. Komisarek, Phaneuf and Schenn have solid defensive seasons, but Beauch struggles again.
5. Luca Caputi takes great strides towards becoming the next John Mitchell.
6. Christian Hanson plays hard but fails to produce points.
7. Bozak experiences the sophomore jinx and TML fans start complaining about the lack of centres on the Leafs.
8. After being acquired in a Kaberle deal, Ryan Malone stinks it up and we're stuck with another overpaid, old man with an immovable contrat.
9. Kaberle plays great in the playoffs.
10. Leafs finish 10th in the East (behind Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Philly, Buffalo, Boston, Ottawa, NY Rangers and Tampa Bay).

Salary Cap Circumvention

2010-08-09T09:28:00.002-04:00

As we await the arbitrator's decision in respect of the Kovalchuk contract, I can't help but feel that the owners can only blame themselves for this mess. For years, the owners have taken advantage of the NHLPA's divisiveness and disorganization, but the owners own lack of solidarity and unity has ultimately lead to this high profile dispute.

The owners were willing to lock out the players and lose an entire season in order to implement a salary cap, which cap has increased from $39m to $59.4m since 2005. Unfortunately for the majority, a few rogue owners have taken advantage of a loophole in the CBA and undermined the entire salary cap system by agreeing to front-loaded contracts.

The only mistake the NHL made was waiting until now rather than challenging the first of these ridiculous deals.

Playing Armchair GM....

2010-07-23T14:17:00.002-04:00

...here's my latest trade proposals:

1. Kaberle + Grabovski to Boston for Savard + Leafs 1st round pick.

2. Leafs trade 2012 second round pick to Chicago for a return of our own 2011 third round pick and Chicago's fourth rounder in 2012.

3. Having our 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2011, Leafs sign Bobby Ryan to an offer sheet at 4 years for $5.4m/year.

Not So Fast

2010-07-21T09:47:00.002-04:00

I'm glad the NHL has rejected this deal; I just wish they had done the same with past deals. They may have shot themselves in the foot by setting a precedent with the Hossa, Pronger and Luongo deals.

The cap circumvention provision in the CBA (Section 26(3) I believe) basically says that if a contract isn't entered in good faith and is an attempt to circumvent the cap, the deal can be rejected. The problem with this provision is that it's difficult to prove that a contract was not negotiated in good faith. If they were unable to prove bad faith in the past deals, it could be difficult to do so now for this deal. The two items that clearly suggest bad faith cap circumvention are also the items that the NHL has approved in past deals; namely front loaded and long term deals. Unfortunately for the NHL, the Pronger, Hossa and similar deals have established a precedent on this front:

1. The significance of the drop in salary and the age at which he'll be receiving it - $550,000 per year for the last 6 years. It's not much different than the Hossa or Pronger contracts.

2. The length of the deal will actually not be an issue either. If you compare his deal to Pronger or Hossa; yes the Kovi deal is longer but he's also younger than both of these players as of the signing date. So by the time the contrats end, they'll be at a similar age. Eg. Pronger will be 43 at the end of his contract and Kovi will be 44.

However, there is one factor here that opened up this deal to scrutiny and, ultimately, I think could result in the NHL's decision being upheld - Lou's comments. He basically came out and said that although it's within the rules, the deal was inconsistent with the spirit of the CBA and that deals like this should not be allowed in the future. I think the latter half of his comment conflicts with the first half. That is, if a deal is contrary to the spirit of the CBA, then is it really made in good faith? I would argue no and, therefore, it's not within the rules. Lou's comments could be interpretted as an acknowledgement that the deal was structured this way to circumvent the CBA. I'm not surprised by his comments and I think he knew what he was doing when he said it. This is not a deal that Lou wanted to make.

Kovalchuk has signed...

2010-07-19T14:52:00.002-04:00

...so now everything else can begin to fall into place. It seems like the Kovi saga has held up a number of other transactions. With Kovalchuk now signed long term (rumour has it 17 years), the Devils are going to be looking to clear out some cap space and solidify their D by finding a puck moving D-man to replace Paul Martin. It should not surprise anyone if Lou talks to Burkie about Kaberle. While the Devils are going to try to get rid of Rolston and Zubruis, the Leafs won't take anything less than Zach Parise or Travis Zajac. Parise would be an ideal fit for the Leafs and such a move would reunite him with his US Olympic Team coach and GM.

Proposed Trade: Parise for Kaberle (conditional on Kaberle signing an extension).

Why this trade could happen: The big question for any team looking at Kaberle is whether he'll bolt at season's end as an unrestricted free agent. However, if the Devils can re-negotiate a long term deal with Kabs prior to making the trade, his value to them will be much higher. The chances of Kaberle agreeing to an extension with the Devils is quite good - Patrick Elias is a close friend and Czech Republic teammate. Elias has recently stated in an interview that he'd love to see Kaberle come to New Jersey.

With Kovalchuk and Elias on the left wing, the value of Kaberle to the Devils would exceed the value of Parise.

Centre

2010-07-04T09:48:00.002-04:00

There has been a lot of talk about filling the void at centre for the Leafs. I'll admit that we do not have a proven first line centre. However, that doesn't mean we don't have a first line centre.

If you read my post below (one move away), you'll see that, given the cap situation, the Leafs are basically in a position where they ship Finger to the minors and then trade Kaberle for a top 6 forward.

In my opinion, that forward needs to be a scoring winger; not a centre. Bozak showed last year that he is a very capable centre and I firmly believe he can carry the load on the first line with Kessel and another solid winger.

There has also been a lot of talk about Kadri making the big club next year. If he does, you can't put him on the 3rd or 4th line, so expect him to be the #2 centre if he makes it. In such instance, Grabovski would have to be moved. He's too expensive to put on the 3rd line and, quite frankly, deserves to be playing on a #2 line somewhere. If Kadri isn't ready to make the jump, then we have Grabovski who is a decent playmaker with the potential to hit the 50 pt range as our #2 centre.

What I'm saying (in a somewhat long winded manner) is that we have three young players capable of filling the top two centre roles. If we surround them with solid wingers who can score, our top 6 will be fine. Kessel, Versteeg and Kulemin are already there. All we need is one more winger (Bobby Ryan? Simon Gagne?) to fill out the top 6.

One move away?

2010-07-03T12:16:00.001-04:00

I just took a big picture look and went over all of Burke's recent moves. For the first time in a long time, it was easy to slot players into their spots – a clear definition of top 6 and bottom 6. I don’t see any players in the top 6 “by default”. The best part is they’re all under 25 years old. Based on the players he has brought in and the players he re-signed, Burke seems to have positioned himself to trade Kaberle for a top-line left winger, which, other than filling in the 6/7 defensive spots, is really the only missing piece at this point.

Bobby Ryan is atop my wish list, but obviously that’ll be a tough acquisition. But there are other options. For the purposes of this post, let’s just assume it’s Ryan and that he’d sign a contract identical to Kessel’s deal. I’m also assuming Grabovski will be moved (possibly as part of a Kaberle deal) and Finger demoted to the Marlies.

On D, I imagine a guy like Aulie will be given a shot at the #6. Overall, the top 5 will be playing heavy minutes this year. I don’t imagine we’d need to spend more than $750,000.00 on filling the #7 spot.

Based on all that, here’s the way I see our lineup looking on opening night:

FORWARDS
Bobby Ryan - Tyler Bozak - Phil Kessel
Nikolai Kulemin - Nazem Kadri - Kris Versteeg
Colby Armstrong - Christian Hanson - Luca Caputi
Fredrik Sjostrom – John Mitchell - Colton Orr/Mike Brown

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf - Luke Schenn
Carl Gunnarsson - Mike Komisarek
Francois Beauchemin - Keith Aulie/Other

GOALTENDERS
Jonas Gustavsson
Jean-Sebastien Giguere

SALARY CAP NUMBER: $59,257,500.00

More importantly, that is a young, fast, playoff team.

Less than 24 hours until free agency...

2010-06-30T13:18:00.002-04:00

...unlike the pre-lockout era, I'm really hoping the Leafs avoid handing out any foolish contracts. If its true that they're targetting Hamhuis, I'd be happy to have him, but I hope his salary doesn't exceed $4.5m.

As for offensive options, I'd like to see Burke get Malhotra and Armstrong for a combined total of no more than $3m.

Burkie would then have to move Kaberle (trade), Grabovski (trade) and Finger (likely to the minors).

If can acquire a top line winger via trade (earning $6m or less), they'd be just under the $59.4m cap.

Rumblings

2010-06-29T08:53:00.002-04:00

According to an article in the Globe today, Burke is hesitant to go after Savard before exploring other options, which the writer believes include a potential trade with Philly for Jeff Carter.

As everyone knows, had Kaberle waived his no trade clause, the Leafs could have had Carter and a 1st for Kaberle a couple of years back. Even if Philly were willing to move Carter now (I don't understand why they'd want to do this), the return this time would be much lower and would likely be Kabs + something for Carter.

Still, if Burke could make it happen, I'd love to see it. Carter is one of the best young players in the NHL and would be a great fit next to Phil Kessel for many years to come. Would Kaberle plus the rights to Kulemin be enough to get a deal done?

It's been a while...

2010-06-28T08:00:00.002-04:00

Well I just got back from my honeymoon and, in addiiton to fighting a cold, I spent most of the weekend catching up on Leafs news. Here's a few thoughts on the top stories.

1. Draft: I don't know much about Brad Ross, but if he comes as advertised (i.e. a Darcy Tucker Clone), I'm quite happy with the selection.

2. Marc Savard: If the Leafs are able to get Marc Savard in a "soft deal" for Grabovski, I will be ecstatic. Suddenly Kessel for two firsts and a second becomes Kessel and Savard for Grabovski, two firsts and a second. That's a bit easier to stomach. I know Savard has a history of concussions, but when you finish 29th in the league, you have to take some risks; especially when the potential reward is a 100 pt centre. If he stays healthy (this is not a big "if"), the Leafs would have a solid first line with Kessel and Savard. As discussed below, I think the other winger on this line will be acquired via a trade for Kaberle. Acquiring Savard would also take some pressure of Bozak by letting him develop on the 2nd line, with Stalberg and Kulemin on his wings. Acquiring Savard would also allow the Leafs to give Kadri one year in the AHL to develop and get stronger. I would hate to see him rushed into the NHL before he's ready and getting Savard would alleviate the need to do that.

3. Kaberle: Not surprisingly, Kabs is still a Leaf. Given the events of the past weekend, I think it's fairly obvious that Burke wants a roster player and not draft picks for Kabs. Once the opening day of free agency passes, there will be teams looking to add Kabs to their rosters and we should be able to trade him for a top 6 winger.

1993 Leafs

2010-05-26T13:31:00.002-04:00

I read an article on sportsnet regarding whether Canadian hockey fans consider reaching but losing in the conference finals a "success". The article discusses the Leafs' runs of the early 90's extensively. I wrote this in the comments section on the story, but thought I'd share it here as well.

The Leafs' 1993 run isn't memorable just because the Leafs got to the conference final. That run is memorable because of the quality of the games played and the drama associated with each round.

Round 1: Leafs fall behind 2-0 to Detroit before coming back and winning a dramatic game 7 in OT at the Joe on a goal by the dimunitive Nikolai Borchevsky.

Round 2: Leafs vs. Cujo - The Gilmour double OT goal from behind the net is one of the most memorable in Leafs history and set the scene for a hard fought back and forth series. With the exception of a lop-sided game 7 dominted by the Leafs, it was a close and intense series.

Round 3: Leafs vs. Gretzky/Fraser - The series was marred by the Game 6 controversy and for the third straight series, the Leafs went 7 games; this time against the greatest player in hockey history leading the charge on the other side. It was a classic showdown that unfortunately ended with a Kings victory. On top of all this, Montreal was waiting in the wings to play the victor. The thought of a Leafs-Habs final made the LA series that much more dramatic.

So like I said - it's not that we as Leafs fan are happy the Leafs only made it to the conference finals. The season was not a "success" because we made it to the final four. 1993 was just a special year filled with quality hockey and lots of excitement; that's why it's so well remembered (and why those games are still re-played so frequently on Leafs TV).

Ask yourself this: If Leafs fans were content with an appearance in the conference finals an didn't care about not winning the cup that year, then why is Kerry Fraser still so despised by Leafs nation for the Gretzky non-call in Game 6?

Once again...

2010-05-25T09:23:00.002-04:00

...as a Leafs fan who hasn't gotten to enjoy playoff hockey for some time, I can yet again take joy in another teams misery. Congratulations to the Habs, who proved all of the doubters correct: the three midgets you brought in over the offseason cannot compete against a team that actually plays defense. Halak was spectacular against the Caps and the Pens and the lack of defense allowed the Habs to score just enough to get by those teams, but that wasn't going to work against a team built on from blueline out.

I have to say, watching that series makes me optimistic about how Burke has chosen to rebuild the Leafs.

Boston Bruins

2010-05-15T11:52:00.003-04:00

Boston showed that it was a better team than its regular season record would suggest and the addition of Hall or Seguin next season will be an additional boost. Still, you can't help but wonder what they might have been able to do this season had they not traded Kessel. It's fair to say the Bruins' collapse can be directly attributed to the loss of David Krejci to injury, which shows how little goal-scoring depth they have. Chiarelli is definitely getting a great player this summer, but but did he cost himself a championship along the way? As a Leafs fan who is sick and tired of the criticism related to the trade, seeing the Bruins blow it was at least some consolation.

Vancouver's Early Exit

2010-05-13T09:12:00.003-04:00

With Vancouver's early exit from the playoffs, excpet them to be looking for a player to help get them over the hump next season. They have a decent group of forwards and a "great" goalie and some decent defenders. The one thing they could really use is a puck-moving defenceman who can anchor their powerplay.

Kaberle should be coveted by Vancouver on draft day and I believe Cody Hodgson (who has a well publicized rift with the Canucks) could be the return the Leafs are looking for. It may not necessarily be a 1-for-1 (I wouldn't mind seeing Grabovski thrown into the mix for a 2nd round pick), but I will not be surprised if it happens.

Poni

2010-05-08T18:19:00.002-04:00

Well, the Leafs have a decent young prospect in Luca Caputi, while Alex Ponikarovsky is a healthhy scratch in the Pens' playoff game tonight.

We've come along way since Toskala/Raycroft were our back-"stop"

2010-04-29T09:43:00.004-04:00

The Leafs signed NCAA free agent goaltender, Ben Scrivens to a one year entry level deal. The Leafs now have five goaltenders under contract(Giguere, Gustavsson, Reimer, Rynnas and Scrivens). I would expect Reimer, Rynnas and Scrivens to battle for playing time with the Marlies, with the odd man out starting for the Reading Royals in the ECHL.

If Gustavsson can prove himself next season, Giguere likely not be re-signed after his current deal is up (expires end of next season). At that point, I think Reimer will get his shot as a backup with the big club in 2011-12 and, if Scrivens is re-signed after next season, Rynnas and Scrivens will split games with the Marlies for a couple of years.

Overall, Burke has done a good job of adding some depth in net. It's now up to Francois Allaire to ensure the young guys become quality NHL goaltenders.

Tough to watch a Leafless playoffs...

2010-04-25T11:25:00.001-04:00

...but seeing the Sens lose in the first round makes it a little easier to take.

Building a winner

2010-04-23T13:24:00.003-04:00

I'm sick and tired of reading media stories about the "right way to build a contender". When the Ducks won the cup, everyone was saying "you need tough Canadian kids". When the wings won the cup "you need skilled europeans". when the pens won the cup "you need to build through the draft". Hindsight is 20/20 and there is more than one sure way to do it. If you want to know what the actual formula is for winning ---> Get good players wherever you can, hope they have chemistry and are well coached, and manage your cap while you're at it.

Personally, I hope the Coyotes win the cup. Next thing you know every article will be "the only way to win the cup is to commence bankruptcy proceedings and have a long courtroom battle before the season starts".

In case anyone ever questions my authority on all things blue & white...

2010-04-21T16:00:00.001-04:00

Beat that if you can!

Dallas was favoured...

2010-04-21T14:16:00.005-04:00

...but Burke worked his magic and managed to sign Jussi Rynnas. Apparently he signed a two-year; two-way entry level deal, meaning he'll be playing for the Marlies next year.

Nice addition...the cupboard is not as bare as it used to be. The Leafs are now actually ranked sixth by hockeysfuture.com:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/12084/hockeys_future_organizational_rankings_spring2010110/

Why cheer for a team just because it's Canadian?

2010-04-21T09:01:00.002-04:00

I was listening to Prime Time Sports on the way home from work last week and it was one of the rare occasions where I agreed with what Bobcat had to say. The question was who are you cheering for in the playoffs if your team is out? The panel seemed to suggest that, as a Canadian, you should be cheering for another Canadian team to win the cup. I think this is a ridiculous suggestion. As a fan of the Leafs, there is no chance in hell that I would ever cheer for the Sens or the Habs in the playoffs. The last thing I want is to see either of those teams hoisting Lord Stanley's mug. As for the Canucks, they're thousands of miles away. Wouldn't it make more sense for me to cheer for the Sabres who are an hour drive away?

Here's the thing - this isn't the olympics. Picking a "favourite" in the playoffs has nothing to do with national pride. Look down the rosters fo the Canadian teams and you'll see a lot of non-Canadians.

Personally, I'd like to see a team like LA, Colorado or Phoenix make a strong run. I'd particularly like to see Colorado move on because of Darcy Tucker...my 2nd favourite Leaf of all time.

Relatively Quiet

2010-04-21T08:43:00.002-04:00

Only news coming out of Leafsland these days is regarding the pursuit of Jussi Rynnas; a 6'5", 22 year old Finnish goalie. Unlike with Gustavsson last year, Rynnas isn't expected to be an NHLer anytime soon. It looks like Dallas is the team to beat, but it would be nice to have another goalie prospect on the farm.

Gus

2010-04-15T19:01:00.002-04:00

On the way home from work today, I was happy when I heard the tail end of a report regarding Gustavsson re-signing for $2.7m. I was even happier (and quite surprised) when I found out that it was $2.7m over 2 years! Good start Burkie. Lets get Kuli signed up and then just go from there.

More goals comin

2010-04-14T19:54:00.000-04:00

One of these players will be a Toronto Maple Leaf next season:
Jarome Iginla
Bobby Ryan
Ryan Getzlaf
Jeff Carter
Nicklas Backstrom
Alexander Semin
Eric Staal
Patrick Sharp
Rick Nash
Ryan Kessler
Ilya Kovalchuk
Brad Richards
Dustin Penner

Kessel

2010-04-13T09:31:00.002-04:00

These are the facts:
- 22 years old
- battled and beaten cancer
- had offseason shoulder surgery to repair torn rotator cuff and labrum, which prevented him from working out last summer and caused him to miss training camp and the first month of the season
- scored 30 goals and 25 assists for 55 points in his first season on a bad team (without a quality centre until February 1)
- played the last 4 games of the season with a torn abdominal muscle

Anyone who questions whether he is a legitmate star in this league is out of their mind. One summer of solid workouts and this kid will be a legitimate threat to score 50 goals next season.

A Time to Reflect

2010-04-12T08:49:00.002-04:00

Although this was a disappointing season, unlike the past few years we at least have some positives to look upon as we go forward. As a preliminary point, I think Leafs nation has to forget about the draft pick sitting in Boston's hands - no point in torturing ourselves; we should instead be looking forward and focusing on what can be done to improve our lineup. The picture isn't as gloomy this offseason as it has been in years past.

Gustavsson, Kulemin, Kessel, Kadri, Bozak, Stalberg, Hanson, Caputi, Sjostrom, Gunnarsson, Schenn and Phaneuf are a solid young base to build a team around. As chemistry continues to develop and player roles are sorted out, more goals will be scored and less will be given up.

In the back end, Gigure, Beauchemin and Komisarek (when healthy) provide some veteran leadership and stability alongside the young guys noted above. If Kaberle is back, the top 6 spots are secure. Even if he is traded at the draft (which I hope is the case), our defence will still be formidable next season, with the top 5 taking up most of the minutes.

Up front, as I've said before, the only thing missing is one top-line forward. I'd be happy to see the Leafs go after a young RFA like Bobby Ryan or Kovalchuk (UFA) to score some goals. Alternatively, as long as the asking price isn't too high, I'd be happy to see Jarome Iginla acquired to provide some veteran leadership up front, while also providing solid offence.

I think you can only evaluate this team's play since the January 31 Phaneuf/Giguere trades which shook up the roster. Since February 1, this team played .500 hockey, which is impressive for a bunch of players who hadn't really played together, including a number of rookies. Even if the lineup stayed the same, it's not unreasonable to expect it to play better next season, after building more chemistry and gaining more experience. Still, I can't see BB sitting on his hands, so I expect at least one big move this offseason to provide a scoring punch up front.

I know it's a tired old song heard at the end of every season, but I don't mind singing it this year - This team will compete for a playoff spot next season.

One game left

2010-04-08T09:53:00.003-04:00

1. Hopefully the last game in a Leafs' uniform for Kaberle, Grabovski and Wallin. I like Kabs and Grabo, but I feel that together they are the package that will get us a top 6 winger, a first round pick or a prospect.

2. Hopefully it will be a must-win game for the Habs and, in turn, hopefully we can beat them to end the season with a win.

You're welcome Boston

2010-04-08T09:13:00.001-04:00

As much as I'd love to see them drop after the draft lottery, with our luck it'll end up being the 1st overall pick.

Trading Partners This Off-Season

2010-04-07T09:23:00.004-04:00

1. Boston - I don't care what they have to offer; our trade history with the Bruins has not been a pleasant one, so lets just pretend they don't exist.

2. Flames - When it comes to trades, we've owned them since the Gilmour deal. The trend continued when we traded away our garbage for Phaneuf. They even went out and picked up garbage we sent to another team in Toskala. Now that the Flames have missed the playoffs, they may feel it's time to part ways with Jarome Iginla. Lets see what they'd want in return.

3. Anaheim - If Bobby Ryan is asking for big money, it may be another opportunity to jump in and take advantage of a team with cap/financial concerns and a high-priced RFA to re-sign.

4. Philly - If they miss the playoffs, they may make a move for the sake of making a move. While they'd likely prefer to move Briere, it can't hurt to take a stab at Carter...even if it is a long shot.

5. Washington - Can they afford to pay big money to Ovechkin, Backstrom (RFA this year) and Semin (RFA next year)? It may be worth taking a shot at Backstrom or Semin.

6. Carolina - After another disappointing season for the Canes, is there a chance they would be willing to move Staal?

7. Florida - Not sure what they'd have to offer, but they may be interested in reuniting McCabe and Kaberle in Miami.

8. San Jose - Boyle and Kabs would make a nice back end for the Sharks powerplay.

9. Chicago - Solid young team with a number of young players; recipe for cap problems when they all want big money at the same time.

10. Los Angeles - See point 9; same scenario.

11. Columbus - Long shot and wishful thinking - Rick Nash?

Pathetic way to close out the home schedule

2010-04-06T22:05:00.002-04:00

It seems Tampa and Florida are trying really hard to let the Leafs by, but the Leafs blew a prime opportunity to tie both teams in the standings. The Leafs remain 2 pts behind and one less game to play than both of those teams. All we can hope for is to catch one of those two teams, but hope is running out.

Three games left and four teams to possibly catch

2010-04-05T09:29:00.003-04:00

I'm still surprised by the late season play of teams such as the Canes and Islanders. I think Florida and Tampa are both playing for draft position at this point, but hopefully it's not too late for us to pass them. It'll be interesting since those two teams play a home-and-home to close the season. I do think we'll pass one or two of these teams, but given that tampa plays florida twice and carolina once, it will be nearly impossible to pass more than two(especially if they play any 3 point games).

I preface this by noting that the Leafs have to win all three of their remaining games if they hope to pass any of the teams ahead of them and by no means is that a sure thing. IF the Leafs win out (it's a big "if"), they'll finish with 78 points (32-36-14).

The Islanders, who plays New Jersey, Montreal and Pittsburgh (twice), has a record 33-35-10 for 76 pts.

Carolina, who plays Tampa, Montreal and Boston, has a record of 33-36-10 for 76 points.

Florida, who plays Ottawa, New Jersey and Tampa (twice), has a record of 31-35-12 for 74 points.

Tampa, who plays Carolina, Ottawa and Florida (twice), also has a record of 31-35-12 for 74 points.

I would note, the NHL tiebreaker is (1) most wins; (2) head-to-head results; and (3) goal differential. The Canes already have more wins than the Leafs could end up with, so they lose that tiebreak. If points and wins were equal, the Leafs would also lose on the tiebreaker to Florida (goal differential) and the Isles (head-to-head). With points and wins being equal, the only team the Leafs would pass int he standings is the Lightning (head-to-head).

So, if the Canes and Isles each earn at least two points, they will finish ahead of the Leafs, if the Panthers earn 4 points (with at least 1 win), they'll finish ahead of the Leafs and, if the Lightning earn four points (with at least two wins) or five points (with 1 win), they'll finish ahead of the Leafs. There are obviously a number of potential scenarios involving three point games, but I don't have all day to go through those!

Based on those numbers, there are two scenarios that I can think of where the Leafs could pass three teams in the standings:

Scenario 1:
- Carolina loses all three of its remaining games;
- Islanders lose all four of their remaining games; and
- The Panthers split or lose the Tampa series and lose to Ottawa and New Jersey OR Tampa loses both games to Florida and loses to Ottawa

In this scenario, the Leafs would pass (1) Carolina, (2) New York and (3) Florida or Tampa (with the other of these two teams staying ahead of the Leafs).

Scenario 2:
- the Islanders losing all four of its remaining games; and
- Florida and Tampa splitting their series and losing all of their other games.

In this scenario, the Leafs would pass all three of these teams, with the Canes staying ahead of them.

Scenario 3:
- Carolina loses all three of its remaining games;
- Islanders lose all four of its remaining games; and
- Florida loses all of its other games.

In this scenario, the Leafs would pass all three of these teams, with the Lightning staying ahead of them.

There are also certain scenarios where the Leafs would pass two teams in the standings, but you can figure those out yourself.

If you ask me, the most likely scenario if the Leafs win out will have the Leafs finishing behind both the Isles and Canes and passing one of tampa or florda, but not both. I don't think it's impossible to pass both, but I do think it's unlikely. Still, it would be nice to bump Boston out of the top 3 draft spots.

kessel vs. boston

2010-04-03T16:26:00.002-04:00

just a quick note: tonight is the night kessel finally breaks out against the bruins.

2010-04-02T11:02:00.003-04:00

I've been playing around with the salary cap numbers to see if my proposed roster would work. Here are the numbers:

FORWARDS:
Tyler Bozak ($3.725m)
Viktor Stalberg ($0.850m)
First Line Winger ($7.500m)
Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Nikolai Kulemin ($3.000m)
Nazem Kadri ($1.750m)
Christian Hanson ($1.000m)
Luca Caputi ($0.833m)
John Mitchell ($0.750m)
Wayne Primeau ($1.000m)
Colton Orr ($1.000m)
Fredrik Sjostrom ($0.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.512m)

DEFENSEMEN:
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Luke Schenn ($2.975m)
Francois Beauchemin ($3.800m)
Carl Gunnarsson ($0.800m)
Mike Komisarek ($4.500m)
Keith Aulie ($0.733m)
Phil Oreskovic ($0.508m)

GOALTENDERS:
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($6.000m)
Jonas Gustavsson ($2.500m)

BUYOUT:
Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)

TOTALS
ROSTER: 22
PAYROLL: $57.387m
CAP ROOM: $3.673m
BONUSES: $6.475m

I think the "Cap Room" might not be correct because, as I understand, bonuses will be counting against the cap next year. Therefore, we may need to shed about $500,000 in salary to make this work, but that shouldn't be too hard to do.

I'm surprised I'm suggesting this, but could Kovalchuk be the final piece to this puzzle?

2010-04-02T10:05:00.002-04:00

In light of my last post regarding Tyler Bozak, I thought I should probably re-evaluate my March 30 assessment of the Leafs’ forwards. So here we go:

Bozak has convinced me that he is a #1 centre and I can’t wait to see what he does when he adds a bit of muscle this summer. I have also been sold on Stalberg since watching the rookie tournament in Kitchener last year, so in my mind he’s the natural selection to play on Bozak’s wing (and has proven it over the last month).

I’m not completely sold on having Kessel on the Bozak line, as I’d rather see him play on a line with Kadri and Kulemin. It would give Kadri a true goal scorer to play and develop with, while putting a talented and responsible two way winger in Kulemin on the other side.

Hanson works hard and, notwithstanding his lack of goals this year, he could be a 20 to 25 goal scorer. While he’s played well with Bozak and Stalberg, I’d still prefer to see Hanson on the 3rd line wing with Luca Caputi (another hard-nosed winger willing to crash the net) on the other wing. John Mitchell has also played well lately, but not enough to earn big money. If he’s willing to re-sign cheap, he might be the natural fit between Hanson and Caputi.

While Mikhail Grabovski has played well lately, I think he’s the odd man out with respect to the top two lines. Given that you can’t put a guy with his talent (and his salary) on the third line, I think he may be moved this summer.

I’m hoping the Leafs re-sign Primeau, as he provides a veteran presence on a young team and he has played really well this year. Primeau, Sjostrom and Orr are a formidable fourth unit.

So, to summarize, here’s what I’d like to see next season (after moving Grabo and Kabs):

Stalberg - Bozak - __________
Kessel - Kadri - Kulemin
Hanson - Mitchell - Caputi
Sjostrom - Primeau - Orr

Phaneuf - Schenn
Gunnarsson - Beauchemin
Komisarek - Exelby

Gustavsson
Giguere

Hmmm….maybe the Leafs should go after Kovalchuk?

93-42

2010-04-02T09:25:00.002-04:00

First off, I know this post will make me sound like a total homer, but I don't care. I'm jumping the gun here, but the more and more that I see off Tyler Bozak, the more and more he reminds me of Doug Gilmour.

Watching him skate with the puck, he always seems to be aware of what's going on around him; he knows where the other team's players are and he knows where his teammates are. He does a great job of finding openings and he has a great touch when passing the puck.

He also has a nose for the net and doesn't mind going hard towards it. He also plays hard in the corners and plays phsyical against guys twice his size.

His combination of finesse and grit is a rare find. He leads by example and, most importantly, he just seems to make those around him better. If he can carry this momentum into next season, the Leafs already have the #1 centre that (as recently as my last post) I thought they were lacking. Bozak has made me a believer.

2010-03-30T12:34:00.002-04:00

Burke’s philosophy: Build from the net out. With respect to the forwards, we’ll have two scoring lines and two checking lines. Based on this philosophy and our current 23 man roster, the following is a summary of where we have a surplus and where we face shortfalls. The trick is in converting the assets comprising our surplus into assets addressing the shortfalls.

1. Goaltending: Gus and Giggy are a solid combo and proven it as of late. I anticipate Gus will sign an extension, so things are looking good in the crease these days.

2. Defence: Kaberle, Beauchemin, Phaneuf, Schenn , Gunnarsson and Komisarek are all capable of playing in the Top 4, so the Leafs are in the position of being able to trade one or two these guys for the sake of addressing shortfalls in other areas. The #5 and #6 slots could be filled with some low-cost UFAs, or call-ups (possibly Aulie and Oreskovic) I cannot see Finger sticking around with the big club, given his salary and presume he’ll be moved or sent to the Marlies (likely a Marlie). While I like the way Exelby plays, it seems he wants out of town and I don’t expect him to re-sign with the Leafs. If he was willing to sign for cheap, I think he would be a solid #6 on this team next season.

3. Forwards

(a) Checking - Lines 3 & 4: Caputi, Hanson and Sjorstrom could ultimately solidify spots on the top 2 lines, but for now I think they’d make for a solid #3 line next year. They’re physical, but could also contribute offensively. I also hope Primeau re-signs, as I’d like to see him on the 4th line with Orr and Jay Rosehill next season. If not Rosehill, I would not be disappointed if Lundmark re-signed at a league minimum salary. I really hope Wallin is not brought back next season.

(b) Scoring – Lines 1 & 2

As it stands right now, I’d say Grabovski, Kessel, Bozak, Kulemin, Stalberg and Kadri are all guys who could play on the top 2 lines. However, I do not think this is enough to ice two balanced scoring lines. For one, Bozak, Kadri and Grabovksi are all centres, but I do not think any of them are a true #1 centre at this point of their careers. This is all the more reason not to re-sign Mitchell (a centre who has failed to prove he belongs on this team). Kessel is a proven #1 winger. I believe Stalberg could be a #1 line winger. I think Kulemin is versatile and, given his two-way play, could play on any of the top 3 lines (I’d consider him on the 3rd line if the team rolled 3 rather than 4 lines, as he definitely deserves lots of playing time).

(c) Overall Forward Lines

It seems we have an abundance of guys who can fill out Lines 2, 3 and 4, but only one player (Kessel) who is a proven first line player. Any number of our wingers could play on the other side of Line 1, but we’re clearly missing a first line centre.

What To Do?

Kaberle and Grabovski are prime candidates to be moved in a package for a #1 centre. I also wonder whether the Leafs would consider including Kadri and/or Gunnarsson in a package, assuming the return is a true young #1 centre to build around. Not including the immovables (Ovie, Sid and Evgeni), I can count on one hand the players I would be willing to take in return for a package including Kabs, Grabo, Kadri and Gunnar – that list would be Backstrom, Stamkos, Kopitar and Carter.

Taste of Our Own Medicine

2010-03-29T09:28:00.003-04:00

After watching the Leafs' last Sunday afternoon game against the Islanders, I was expecting a lack-lustre effort from the Buds yesterday against the Pens. I was pleasantly surprised by the effort put forward, but was obviously disappointed by the ultimatle result. After tieing it up late against the Rangers and winning in OT, we got a taste of our own medicine when we gave up a late goal to the Pens and lost in the shootout. Still, when you got to Pittsburgh and steal at least 1 point, it's not a total disappointment.

It's also not often that I'll give credit to a goalie in a game where he gives up 4 goals during regulation and two in the shootout, but Giguere played great and is the only reason the game even went into the extra session.

Also, after playing rather poorly against the Rangers, Kessel and Bozak came out strong against the Pens. Congrats to Kessel for hitting the 30 goal plateau. 30 goals in 64 games is impressive for a guy coming off shoulder surgery and who missed the first month of a season with a new team (and, for that matter, a crappy team). It's not unreasonable to suggest that, as this team improves, this kid might be a 50 goal scorer sooner rather than later.

Leafs vs. Rangers

2010-03-28T08:44:00.002-04:00

Well, I was lucky enough to have attended the game last night and, although it started out slow, the third period/OT was fast-paced and exciting. Here are my observations...made from the nosebleeds:

1. Luke Schenn - He seems to have picked up some tricks from playing with Tomas Kaberle over the last two seasons. He's really starting to show some skill with the puck and calmness in his own end. He's not the fastest skater on the ice, but his footwork/stickhandling is excellent for someone his age. With Schenn and Phaneuf on the back-end, the Leafs are going to have a solid one-two punch for many years to come. After a rough start to the season, Schenn has really come on strong since January and has shown why he was a top 5 pick. He was definitely the best defender on the ice last night.

2. Gustavsson - He's showing why BB fought so hard to land him last summer. You can give credit to Allaire for coaching him and Giguere for mentoring him, but I think people forget to give credit to Gustavsson himself. No one could have reasonably expected him to step into the lineup in October and dominate; especially after the offseason heart surgergy. That would undoubtedly weigh heavy on a 25 year old's mind. He has now acclimatized himself to the NHL game and NHL rinks. He still needs to focus on staying in position, but I believe this kid is the real-deal. I can't wait to see what he does next season.

3. Kulemin - Without question, the best two-way player on this team. I have high hopes for Kulemin next season. He's underrated offensively, he's responsible defensively, he's gritty and his legs never stop moving. You can't help but love the way this guy plays...it's like he was born and raised in Western Canada.

4. Christian Hanson - He's not a 30 goal scorer, but I think he could really come into his own as a third line centre. I thought he was a bit sluggish when I first saw him play, but he's not as slow as he looks. It's the Nik Antropov effect - he's got a long stride and, therefore, looks like he's moving slow. He does a decent job of getting back into his own end and helping out the D. I'd like to see what Hanson-Sjorstrom-Caputi could do together on the third line.

5. Viktor Stalberg - I love watching him play. I wish he would get a bit more ice-time on the top lines. I wouldn't mind seeing Kulemin moved to a line with Grabovski (with whom he clearly has chemistry) and Stalberg on the first line with Bozak and Kessel.

6. Rickard Wallin - Please go back to Sweden.

7. John Mitchell - Has played better lately, but I'd still prefer to see him moved in the offseason.

8. Jeff Finger - Enjoy life in the minors next season.

9. Kaberle - I love the guy, but he's not the focal point of the D anymore. The Leafs can afford to move him this offseason to get a top 6 forward. Phaneuf, Schenn, Beauch, Komi and Gunner are a solid top 5. As long as someone other than Finger is #6, the D will be solid next season.

Here we go again...

2010-03-26T13:21:00.002-04:00

...David Booth takes another shoulder to the head and the cry babies are going to be out in full force once again complaining that the NHL has not done enough. Unlike the Richards hit on Booth and unlike the Cooke hit on Savard, the Spacek hit on Booth was a text-book clean hit - he didn't run at him, he was direclty in front of him and his elbows were down. I am totally on board for the blind-side hit to the head rule, but when a player is skating forward with his head down, responsibility has to rest with that player to protect himself.

When Phil Kessel got stood up at the blueline in his first game with the Leafs in November, no one claimed it was a dirty hit and no one complained. Same can be said when Viktor Stalberg got crunched while skating with his head down earlier this year.

Now, I would be willing to bet if Spacek had hit any other player last night in that situation, it would not be news today. But unfortunately for Booth, whether he likes it or not, he is now the posterboy for the anti-headshot movement in the NHL.

Florida, Carolina and the Islanders

2010-03-26T09:13:00.002-04:00

I'm really not sure what these three teams are doing. All three are out of the playoff race, yet are still winning more games than they should be at this point of the season. Florida missed a glorious opportunity to climb up the draft chart when it visited Toronto (if the Leafs had one that game, they'd be 1 point behind the Panthers right now). Then Carolina goes out and beats Washington, while the Isles beat the Flames. I still think the Leafs will finish ahead of at least 2 of these teams, but the meaningless late season pushes being made by the Panthers, Canes and Isles are unexplainable. Hall, Seguin and Fowler are the cream of the crop and there's a significant drop off if you're picking 4th.

First Nash; Now Kesler

2010-03-19T16:21:00.003-04:00

It's always a deflating feeling when a player you hoped would be a target for Double B ends up re-upping with his present club. I just don't understand it. For Nash, even if Columbus is your first choice, why not wait until the end of the season? If Nash had known what type of a season the Blue Jackets were in for, I'm sure he would've thought twice about signing.

As for Kesler, who signed a 6 years deal for $5m/season, had he waited until the offseason, he probably could've pushed that salary higher. I was positive Burke was going to take a run at getting Kesler from the Canucks this offseason, but I guess it just wasn't meant to be.

Still, with the Kaberle trade window opening on draft day, I could still see Kabs going to the Canucks for disgruntled prospect Cody Hodgson and a 1st round pick (which will obviously be in the bottom half of the first round).

Kaberle could very well be the final piece of the puzzle for the Canucks next year. They have solid forwards and a stellar goalie; a puck moving Dman who can run the powerplay could just put them over the top. If you ask me, Cody Hodgson and 1st doesn't seem like a steep price to pay for Lord Stanley's mug. It would be a win-win deal for both the Leafs and Canucks.

Meaningless late season push....and I'm not talking about the Leafs

2010-03-17T08:57:00.003-04:00

Well the Isles are on a tear as of late and have vaulted over the Panthers and the Canes in the East. The Leafs are only 4 points behind the Canes and 6 behind the Panthers. Both the Canes and Panthers have tough schedules down the stretch, so if the Leafs keep playing as well as they have lately, I just can't see the Leafs finishing in the bottom 3. As for the Isles, they are the new Leafs....meaningless late season push that does nothing but hurt their draft standings. I just hope the Isles and Blue Jackets both realize that their best bet at this point is to tank and solidify their draft standings before its too late. My draft predictions:

1. Oilers - Taylor Hall (although I'd be picking Seguin)
2. Panthers - Tyler Seguin
3. Canes - Cam Fowler
4. Blue Jackets - Vladimir Tarasenko
5. Bruins (from the Leafs) - Brandon Gormley

late season heroics

2010-03-14T09:23:00.002-04:00

In each of the last few seasons, this was the time of year that Leafs nation normally went into tank mode. Yet, oh so often, a meaningless late season push simply hurt the Leafs' draft standing. I rarely watched Leafs games at these times - it's tough watching a team you love while hoping they lose. With the 1st round pick in Boston's hands this year, things are a different. With 15 games left in the season, I'm still watching Leafs hockey...and, you know what? I'm really enjoyiong it!

As nice as it would have been to see Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin in a Leafs uniform, you can't help but be impressed by how well this team has played lately. It's refreshing to see these kids playing - and playing really well...and with the Leafs not having to worry about tanking this season, we can cheer for the Buds without mixed emotions.

With all the talk about desperately needing a #1 centre, Tyler Bozak is making a lot of us wonder whether we already have one. If he puts on 10 to 15 pounds of muscle this summer, he'll be a force on the ice.

Phil Kessel has been as promised; already scoring 25 goals in an injury-shortened season. He should easily reach 30 and I can't wait to see what he does next season.

Kulemin has really come on since joining the first line and having a solid two-way forward on the first line is priceless.

Christian Hanson may not be putting pucks in the net, but it's only a matter of time. This kid plays hard and is creating chances playing on the 3rd line. Give him a summer to work on his skating and I think he'll be a 20 to 25 goal guy next year. If they put him in front of the net on the powerplay, maybe more.

Gunnarsson has been a real surprise on the blue line. He's calm, cool and collected and reminds me a lot of a young Tomas Kaberle.

Gustavsson has a ways to go, but you really need to be patient with young goalies - especially one not used to playing on North American ice. Another season behind Giguere should help Gus immensely. He's got the talent; it just needs to be honed.

Finally, my favourite young gun is without a doubt Viktor Stalberg. I love the way this guy plays. If he keeps his legs moving and becomes more responsible defensively, the sky is the limit for this kid. Seeing him skate down the wing brings back memories of Berezin, but Stalberg is a far more complete player who actually knows how to pass a puck and is not afraid to crash the net.

Just a quick thought today

2010-03-12T10:12:00.003-05:00

The Leafs need to retain the services of Gary Roberts and have Kessel, Kadri, Bozak, Hanson, Stalberg, Caputi, Schenn and Gunnarson spend the offseason working with Roberts.

Believe it or not, the Leafs are one good player away from being competitive

2010-03-11T09:34:00.004-05:00

The Leafs overtime win over Boston was an exciting game to watch. A bunch of kids skating hard, playing with emotion and starting to gel as a team. Standings aside, this team is a lot better than many people will give it credit for. Burke likes to build from the net out, so I'll examine the team from the net out:

1. Goaltending

In goalie years, Giguere is still a young player. I expect him to be with the Leafs for at least another 2 years after this one. Gustavsson has shown flashes of brilliance, but he also has much to learn. With Giggy leading the way for the next year or two and Gus playing 30 games, I think the Leafs goaltending situation is fairly solid.

2. Defence

Phaneuf, Schenn, Beauchemin, Komisarek, Gunnarsson. That's a solid 5 to build around and you can either bring up a #6 and #7 from the Marlies or find a reliable veteran through free agency. I'll go with Oreskovic and Aulie for the time being. By the time next season roles around, these guys will be a solid unit. Kaberle and Finger are notably absent from this list. I firmly believe Kabs will be traded (as discussed below) and Finger will be shipped to the Marlies to open up cap room.

3. Forwards

Kessel, Kadri, Bozak, Stalberg, Kulemin, Sjostrom, Caputi and Hanson are the nucleus for the top three units. I'd like to see Primeau back next season to play on the 4th line along with Orr. Mitchell has not made the most of his opportunities and its time to let him go. Wallin is a write off as well in my humble opinion.

So what's missing? It's no secret - the Leafs need a #1 centre. Who do I think they'll go after? Given the lack of quality UFAs, I think Burke will target US Olympian Ryan Kesler, who is a pending RFA. The Canucks have $19.7m invested in the Sedins and Luongo. I don't think they can afford to spend another $5m to $6m on a forward; they need a top notch Dman to fill out their roster. I think a trade along these lines would be mutually beneficial for these teams:

To Vancouver:
Tomas Kaberle
Mikhail Grabovski
3rd round pick

To Toronto:
Rights to Ryan Kesler

From the Canucks point of view, even if they can't re-sign Kaberle, they will be poised for a cup run next season. Grabo will provide adequate offence as a #2 centre. .

As for the Leafs, we would finally have #1 centre to play with Kessel. With Stalberg on the other wing, this would be a solid first line. With Bozak centering the second unit and Kadri moving to the wing, they could be a solid line with Caputi on the other side. Kulemin and Sjostrom are solid two way players who, with Hanson's big frame in the middle, would make for an excellent third line. Round that out with Orr, Primeau and possibly Lundmark on the 4th line, and I'd say that's a pretty competitive team.

Stalberg - Kesler - Kessel
Kadri - Bozak - Caputi
Sjostrom - Hanson - Kulemin
Lundmark - Primeau - Orr

Phaneuf - Schenn
Komisarek - Beauchemin
Gunnarson - Oreskovic/Aulie

Giguere
Gustavsson

Head Shots

2010-03-10T12:49:00.002-05:00

I'm going to step outside of Leafland for a minute and consider the league wide issue of head shots. First, I do feel bad for Savard. However, in fairness to Cooke, he did not use his elbow and Savard's head was down. Quite frankly, at the time of the hit, I don't think it was an illegal hit and, in turn, I don't think it's fair to punish Cooke for the hit. Punishing Cooke for the Savard hit makes about as much sense as retroactively punishing Scott Stevens for every hit where he hit a forward with his head down at the blue line.

I also just read that league has created a new rule to address the issue, which provides as follows:

"A lateral, back pressure or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and or the principal point of contact is not permitted."

TSN's current poll says "Is the proposed rule change enough?" and its headline is "The Solution?", insinuating that the league hasn't done enough. Personally, I think the league has taken a huge stride by banning blindside hits to the head. Like I said above, you should only punish someone for breaking a rule and Matt Cooke didn't break any rules at the time of the incident. However, with the new rule, if anyone does the same thing Cooke did to Savard, there is a rule to turn to, which will : (a) allow referees to assess a penalty; and (b) provide a basis for further league sanction deemed necessary.

So has the league done enough? Yes. Blindside hits to the head are now illegal and offenders will be punished. What more do you want?

The Kessel Trade

2010-03-10T11:07:00.002-05:00

How many more analyses of the Phil Kessel trade do we need to read? Personally, I'm sick and tired of reading about whether this was a good trade for the Leafs. The trade was completed over 6 months ago! It's easy to judge a trade using hindsight, but unfortunately hindsight is not a tool Burke had the benefit of at the time he made the trade. Regardless of whether you liked the Kessel deal, isn't it about time that hockey writers and fans alike just let it go already? What's done is done and we need to move on. There is absolutely no point in writing about it over and over and over again. Yes - it was a steep price to pay. But I'm more concerned about what Burke does in the future than I am about what Boston does with those draft picks.

I will say this though: The Leafs are only 6 points behind the Islanders, 7 points behind the Canes and 9 points behind Columbus. Do not be surprised when at least one or more of those teams tanks and ends up ahead of the Leafs in the final standings. I'm fairly confident that neither Taylor nor Tyler will be a Bruin. I just hope that once Hall goes to the Oilers and Seguin goes to the Islanders, the criticism regarding the Kessel trade will finally stop.

Just Another Leafs Blog

2010-03-10T09:28:00.000-05:00

So here's the deal...I, like so many others, am a die-hard and very opinionated Toronto Maple Leafs fan. I am a frequent reader of all things Leaf-related on Sportsnet, TSN, the Fan590, etc. More often than not, I disagree with the opinions and analysis available on these sites and, while they offer the opportunity to comment, those comments just get lost in the mix. So, I'm just going to post my opinions here and hope people read it.

I'm not an NHL insider, so you won't get any rumours here other than the occassional and unsubstantiated rumours that I read about elsewhere; I'm not a member of the media, so you won't get any interviews with Leafs players and personnel; and I'm not promising that you'll find anything particularly original on here - just my opinion.